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Cruz, Trump and New Hampshire and a divided GOP

Republican presidential candidates arrive on stage for the Republican presidential debate on August 6, 2015 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. From left are: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker; real estate magnate Donald Trump; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; Texas Sen. Ted Cruz; Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul; and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

The American Presidential election is getting uglier.  I am not talking about the Democrats – not a single one of their candidates can be considered in any way attractive.

No, I am referring to the Republicans.

We will see, within the next few weeks, a falling-off of some of the hopefuls.  Who will remain comes down to how they do in New Hampshire, I strongly suspect.

My thoughts are that Trump, Cruz and Rubio, possibly also Bush, will survive the major blood-letting that will follow New Hampshire but then what?

Trump is the leader in a number of primary states but not overwhelmingly so.  When the cull starts, to which candidate will that drop-out’s supporters go?  I am not sure that these will be anything other than evenly split amongst the three or four remaining and so we may end-up with a floor vote at the National Convention because no candidate has sufficient delegates to gain the nomination.  We’ll see.

My support is for Cruz.  I admire his consistency and his policies and the fact that, though in Washington, he is not of Washington, the same way that Rubio is.  Trump has the momentum but I believe his lack of substance will start to be compared to Obama.  Good oratory but how will he deliver.  Making deals in business is not the same as in politics.  Also Trump has flip-flopped so many times, that will become more and more of a concern.  That and his support for liberal Democrat policies and candidates in the past will start to negatively resonate with heartland Republicans.

The attack ads phenomenon against Trump will escalate, as the field thins.  His hob-nobbing with leading Democrats and their supporters, will become more and more of an issue, I predict.  As will his previous speeches, which will come under much greater scrutiny.

This scrutiny will not just be from his GOP opponents.  The liberal media are lapping him up, at the moment.  They see him as a useful fool who will dispose of the highly credible Cruz but if he starts to move towards being the nominated candidate, watch them circle like sharks and devour him.  They won’t let him upset the coronation of Queen Hillary.  They will tear into his bankruptcies and his property deals, his business partners and so on.  He has a lot of baggage on which they can feast!

Trump’s recent escapades with the FoxNews debate speak to an arrogance that will start to toll against him.  We know that the American media has the rarely found affliction of being spineless, toothless and brainless, all at the same time, however, even they will start to tire of the ever-more extreme statements and antics of Trump.  They won’t stand in solidarity with Megyn Kelly – that’s a given – but they will, I suspect, start to scale back the coverage or find ways to provoke ever-more outrageous comments from Trump.   Trump’s arrogance and crude behaviour will be his downfall (or at least I hope it will).

I am not an American but of all those that I know, not one would mock those that are afflicted with a physical disability, as Trump has done.  While some of them probably support Trump, I am sure they are embarrassed by his ducking-out of the last debate.  Who knows?  Maybe he had advance knowledge that video clips of past speeches would be played and so his flip-flopping would be there for all to clearly see.

Incidentally, Trump made much of his rival event being in aid of veteran charities.  One of those that was said to be a beneficiary is called Wounded Warriors.  According to a recent ABC News investigation, this charity manages, through lavish internal expenditure and generous executive salary packages, to devote just over 60% of funds raised, to its veteran beneficiaries.  This as compared to other veteran charities which spend north of 90% of the money they raise, on the people for whom they raise it.   Still, it’s the thought that counts, I suppose.

Coming at the end of eight years of Obama mis-rule , with failed domestic and international policies, a weak economy , greater race division and an unanswered terrorist threat and so on, this should be a great year for the GOP.  That Hillary Clinton, with e-mail gate and Benghazi still hanging over her, is still being spoken of as the likely winner of the Presidential race, is very, very worrying.   Hillary should be in prison awaiting trial not in the race for the White House!  And yet, at the moment, the GOP is in a state of undeclared war.

The GOP establishment don’t like Cruz.  He has upset them too many times.  Ruling elites, of whatever hue, don’t like principled politicians.  Politicians that you can trust to not be bought and to stand and do the duty they were elected to do, worry the GOP establishment – how can such politicians be controlled?  Of course, they can’t.  So now GOPe has to work against Cruz and start to open-up to Trump, while secretly hoping that Rubio starts to move the needle in the upcoming primaries and Trump starts top falter. It is a dangerous game that they are playing.

The Tea Party wing of the GOP, recognise in Ted Cruz, a candidate who will do what he says he is going to do.  The Tea Party are very active and energised.  Ally them with the Trump supports who will defect as he starts to lose ground and GOP has a winning combination.  People that are angry, people that are focused and people that will get out the vote.

New Hampshire voters – you know what to do and who to do it for!

About Tom O'Brien

Profile photo of Tom O'Brien
Tom is an English Conservative Christian currently working as a Finance Manager in Erbil, Kurdistan, Iraq. When not in Iraq, his home is in Grantham, Lincolnshire, United Kingdom; also the hometown of Margaret Thatcher.

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