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Now that Hammond and other Remain Tories are no longer setting the agenda the new Conservatives can have a tactical election for Brexit. They can put tax cuts and other contentious issues aside. This is a Brexit election. Remainers will attempt to divert the campaign away from Brexit because they know they will lose if Brexit is the main issue.
Most importantly they must link Austerity with the EU. The prolonged lack of cash for Public Services, including the NHS, was largely a result of EU Membership. The UK Excess Deficit Procedure was based on the terms of the EU Stability and Growth Pact (click on the link to check this) and this procedure prolonged Austerity. Had the UK been a member of the Eurozone, with no opt outs on obeying the sanctions of the EU Excess Deficit Procedure, Austerity would have been worse, however even with the opt outs from sanctions the pro-EU trio of Osborne, Cameron and Cable still ensured that the UK obeyed the EU rules.
Continuing austerity was due to the EU and lack of investment in the NHS was due to continuing austerity. Vince Cable and the other EU supporters were not prepared to violate an EU Pact that caused austerity.
If the UK Remains in the EU it will become more closely bound to the EU Stability and Growth Pact which will make Labour’s “policies” of borrowing to Nationalise industries and increase public spending impossible. Labour is hoping to win an election on the basis of false promises it knows it will not keep because if Labour wins the UK stays in the EU.
HM Treasury has been the main proponent of EU membership. We all know about the scurrilous pre-Referendum report by the Treasury (Project Fear) and the equally scurrilous “No Deal” Treasury reports. The Treasury “predictions” must be exposed, it is especially easy to expose the pre-Referendum Project Fear by the Treasury because the UK economy has been fine since the Referendum and is due to outpace the large EU economies this year:
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| Source: EU Commission data |
It is easy to expose the “falling pound” as a result of the shocking balance of payments deficit due to EU Membership, not Brexit.
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| Pound started falling in 2014, before the Referendum because of the appalling deficit with EU. Source: ONS Data |
Having shown that the HM Treasury cannot be trusted on Brexit the campaign should dismiss the “predictions” of Remain economists.
The economic argument must be shifted from “predictions” to reality.
It is one of the puzzling features of the Campaign for Independence that those who support Independence have failed to draw attention to the fact that production is shifting from the UK to the EU, largely as a result of increasing EU ownership of UK industry. The overall trade deficit with the EU in goods and services is a direct measure of the value of work that should be done in the UK that is taking place in the EU:
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| ONS Data UK Trade Deficit with EU |
This shift in production to the EU amounts to about 3% of UK GDP a year. Even if only half of this deficit can be moved back to UK production by 2030 it would provide a boost of £360 billion in total to the UK economy. £360 billion dwarfs even the worst “predictions” for the adverse effect of a No Deal Brexit in the imaginary “No Deal Apocalypse” reports by the discredited HM Treasury.
Don’t believe the “predictions”, look at the reality. If we want a prosperous UK we must leave the EU. (See Why Trade Deficits must be avoided).
Many Remain voters are unaware of the fact that EU “shared competences” are areas of government that the EU controls but delegates to the UK. The EU can assume almost full powers of government over the UK (except direct taxation and a couple of other areas) without the need for further treaties by ceasing to delegate its powers. Any party standing on a pro-Brexit platform must drive this message home. This election really is about Independence.
The UK will have only about 8.5% of the vote in the EU and vetoes are no longer possible for 80% of EU decision making (click on the link to EU sources if you do not believe this). If the EU swings to the far right the UK will be unable to stop it. The French National Rally and German AfD etc. have now agreed that they support remaining in the EU and working towards a far right EU – (See National Rally joins Salvini in EU alliance).
A concerted effort should be made to fight Racism. The EU is a racist state by UK standards. EU Racism is far worse than the UK and by supporting Remain people are supporting Racism.
We should never forget that it was the middle classes who supported the Nazis, those who arrogantly “know best” even when people are telling them in a Referendum that they are in pain. It is no coincidence that this same group backs Remain:
Labour and LibDems are now the parties of the middle and upper classes, their politicians putting on fake working class accents and promising gifts to fool low earners into voting for them.
This is class war. The mobile rich who believe little Penny will be able to use her degree in the EU versus the rest of the people of the UK.
On the Environment it should be made clear that in Europe the individual nations have long ceded their power over global environmental strategy to the EU (Treaty on European Union, Art 191). Failure to act over the past 30 years is due to EU inaction. This inaction is largely due to the massive power of large, multinational corporations in the EU. (See What has Arctic Ice got to do with the EU?). Also see Environmentalism in the EU for an account of EU inaction.
The greatest environmental threat to the UK is overpopulation. Our urban and infrastructure development is literally squashing the life out of our garden landscape.
It is time to call a halt to the large scale migration into the UK of the past 30 years.
On defence it should be pointed out that the EU is heavily in control. The EU’s common foreign and security policy is defined and implemented by the European Council (consisting of the Heads of States or Governments of the EU countries) and by the Council (consisting of a representative of each EU country at ministerial level). The President of the European Council and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign and Security Policy represent the EU in matters of common foreign and security policy. See Division of Competences within the European Union.
This post was originally published by the author on his personal blog: http://pol-check.blogspot.com/2019/11/fighting-brexit-election.html
