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Tag Archives: Project Fear

No Deal Brexit (WTO, No Transition) will be fine

The Treasury forecasts for the effect of the Referendum on the UK economy are now known to have been wrong. There was no huge economic meltdown due to “uncertainty” in 2017, unemployment has stayed low and inflation is steady.  In fact the UK economy has performed better than that of …

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A plague of yellowhammers

If Remainers were bookmakers, they would have been out of business long ago. Their ability to predict future events ranks with prophets predicting the end of the world is nigh. Next time you see someone ranting in the street calling on you to repent your sins because the world is …

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Movement of Goods after a No Deal Brexit

UK ports imported 248m tonnes of produce and exported 138m tonnes in 2017. (See UK Port Freight Statistics 2017). Click to enlarge. Dover was responsible for only 26m tonnes of the total 386m tonnes of international freight transported in 2017. Top 10 major ports + All other tonnage Dover moved 15.5m …

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The economy, value of pound, trade in July 2019

The graphs below summarise the current state of the UK economy: The central, grey line is the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) of the pound – what the pound is really worth when buying things in the UK, this is the real value of the pound. The coloured lines show when …

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Welsh Lamb Propaganda

There has been a great deal about the “terrible” effects of Brexit on the Welsh lamb industry. What is the truth? Only about 30-40% of Welsh sheep meat is exported: The Welsh sheep industry was worth c.£278m to the Welsh economy in 2018. Only about £70m of meat of all types is …

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The No Deal predictions

Prior to considering any of the predictions for a No Deal Brexit it is worthwhile to get a sense of perspective about the role of the EU in the UK economy. In 2016 exports to the EU constituted only 12% of UK GDP. ( See Exports of Goods and Services to …

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What Journalists should know about Brexit

If, as a journalist or news editor, you know about the facts below but have never reported them you should seriously consider your ethics. John Major, the man who threatened to see the Government in court if it prorogued Parliament did this himself in 1997 – see The Sleaze Report. Yes …

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IMF and Treasury Predicted WTO Brexit will be Fine!

The IMF and Treasury produced reports in 2016 that closely analysed the UK and international economy.  The results of these reports should be read by everyone who is opposed to a No Deal Brexit. The IMF Country Report 16 on the United Kindom has this graph on p31 showing the process of …

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The case against George Osborne, Philip Hammond, and the Treasury

This paper considers whether George Osborne, Philip Hammond and senior Treasury officials should be prosecuted for Misconduct in a Public Office. Prior to the EU Referendum the HM Treasury issued a document called: HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU. This document was widely used by campaigners …

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If MPs overturn the referendum on 13th March…

The EU Referendum was a straight fight between being prepared to accept the risks of “Project Fear” so that the UK could be independent and not being prepared to accept the risks of “Project Fear” . The Leave vote in the Referendum was a vote to accept the risk of …

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Weep not for the Blairites

For the first time in ages, Brexit is not dominating the news. Rather, a possible change in political alliances is breaking with the departure of the 7 Blairite MPs from the Labour party under the banner of “The Independent Group”. It is certainly possible that more Blairite MPs, such as …

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Why Brexit will be fine – deal or no deal

Since the Referendum we can already see that wages are rising in real terms: The Referendum has brought us the highest level of real earnings since November 2010. According to the BBC article Wage Rises Accelerate to the Fastest Pace since 2008:  ‘Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item …

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“Crashing out” of the EU – how big a crash?

The Bank of England published this graph showing the effect of leaving the EU with no deal in its report: EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability: The graph is designed to look as scary as possible.  However, when we read the notes on page 53 we find this little …

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Bank of England gives Green Light to WTO Brexit

Coverage in the media of the fact that the Belfast Agreement does NOT specify open borders with frictionless trade in Ireland has been entirely suppressed (read the Belfast Agreement here if you don’t know this) and the news that the Bank of England has calculated that a WTO Brexit with a 21 …

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Brexit, the unmentioned disgrace

There is one aspect to Brexit that rarely, if at all, gets a mention amidst all the endless blather about deals and proposals and Chequers plans. More of that later as in this piece I don’t want it to disappear as just another piece of Brexit opinion for the Remain …

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